Global tungsten reserves are being torched. The wars in Ukraine and Iran have burned through stockpiles faster than miners can replenish them, and China accounts for approximately 80–83 percent of tungsten processing capacity, meaning the U.S. military cannot source the metal for missile guidance systems, armor plating, and weapons electronics without Beijing's permission. Cove Kaz Capital, a Kazakhstan-focused mining company now merged with Skyline Builders Group (a Hong Kong civil engineering company in which Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump invested via American Ventures, a shell company affiliated with Dominari Securities), is betting on up to $1.6 billion in non-binding letters of interest from U.S. government agencies that it can change this equation by developing untapped reserves in Kazakhstan. The Export-Import Bank and the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation have issued non-binding letters of interest for up to $900 million and $700 million respectively, and the Department of Defense has requested an additional $400 million.
The timing is not coincidental. The DoD has new sourcing rules coming into effect on January 1, 2027 that require non-Chinese tungsten in military procurement, and tungsten prices have spiked 300 percent in two years as the simultaneous drain from Ukraine and Iran accelerates. "The tungsten industry is experiencing unprecedented market conditions," said Pini Althaus, Executive Chairman of Cove Kaz Capital. "Soaring prices are because of scarce supply due to the drawdown of global tungsten reserves as a result of the wars in Ukraine and Iran." A REEShore Act introduced in 2022 included a blanket prohibition on Chinese tungsten in military equipment starting in 2026, but it never passed into law, leaving the DoD instead to craft its own rules and backstop them with capital. The Cove Kaz project becomes the first major test of whether infrastructure capital can actually move the needle.
The Kazakhstan operation is a primary mine-to-refinery project targeting APT production from two greenfield ore deposits. By setting up in Kazakhstan and tying the operation directly to U.S. military sourcing rules, Cove Kaz is creating demand certainty for otherwise uneconomical production. The company expects to trade as Kaz Resources once its merger with Skyline Builders closes in late 2026 or early 2027, at which point the equity market can see whether the bet on government-backstopped tungsten infrastructure actually delivers. The Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy documented that the Export-Import Bank is preparing to close the first funding tranche of Project Vault, a public-private partnership for a U.S. Strategic Critical Minerals Reserve, a structural mechanism that could provide downstream price support if tungsten is included.
Who wins and who loses here is clear. China loses processing margin if Cove Kaz reaches nameplate capacity; the U.S. military gains supply resilience; and domestic defense contractors can finally source tungsten without negotiating through Beijing. What remains uncertain is whether Kazakhstan's tungsten can actually undercut Chinese processing costs once the government capital subsidy is stripped away, and whether the DoD's $400 million additional request clears the appropriations process. The merger with Skyline Builders has drawn scrutiny from watchdog groups over family involvement, and Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.) has called on the Defense Department's Inspector General to investigate multiple transactions involving Trump family members, meaning the deal faces not just technical execution risk but sustained political pressure. Watch three markers: whether the DoD approves the additional $400 million request, whether the Kazakhstan facility reaches commercial production by late 2027, and whether Kaz Resources can demonstrate unit costs within 15 percent of Chinese competitors once government financing is factored in. If any marker fails, the thesis that the U.S. can engineer its way out of Chinese tungsten dependency collapses.